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FX

Fed: On-hold stance with upside hike risk – TD Securities

TD Securities expects the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged through 2026, as inflation stays above target and the labor market stabilizes. The bank notes a mixed Fedspeak backdrop, a blurrier reaction…

Japanese Yen: BoJ expectations skewed to upside – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Japan’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) to edge higher across headline and core measures, with core ex fresh food and energy steady at 1.8%. Swaps discount a 25 bps B…

Canadian Dollar: Inflation cools as BoC stays patient – RBC

Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation eased in June, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 2.8% year-over-year and energy prices reversing part of their earlier surge. Underlying measu…

Euro: Growth validation needed for value case – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that Euro (EUR) assets show emerging value as the European Central Bank (ECB) holds policy and inflation pressures ease, but stresses that Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and earnings must co…

LatAm FX: Carry supports resilience against US Dollar - BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu sees Latin American currencies underpinned by strong balance-of-payments positions and attractive carry, even as global equity nerves rise. Yu notes that conflict-era inflows have created a solid buffer a…

UK PM Starmer: My work is done

United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer, the seventh PM since Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU), delivers his resignation to King Charles at Buckingham Palace. Keir said in his final speech that h…

Forex Today: Oil prices rise further, keeping markets on edge

Oil prices climb higher at the beginning of the week as there are no signs of a de-escalation of the crisis in the Middle East. In the second half of the day, Statistics Canada will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI…

Why is IP stock rallying today?

The US stock market surge today is not just about one earnings beat or one piece of economic data. It is the product of a very strange, very specific moment in financial history — where geopolitical chaos, an oil shock,…

British Pound: Burnham honeymoon meets fiscal reality – ING

ING’s Chris Turner writes that Sterling has benefited from expectations Andy Burnham will appoint a fiscally cautious chancellor, alongside stale short positioning and M&A-related flows into United Kingdom (UK) equities…