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FX

Oil: Geopolitics test supply routes – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu reports Oil prices rose after the Houthis claimed a missile strike on a Saudi tanker near Yanbu, highlighting risks to alternative export routes while Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist. He notes Washin…

New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ seen hiking again – TD Securities

TD Securities reviews New Zealand’s Q2 labour report, noting unemployment rose to 5.6%, an 11‑year high, partly on higher participation, while employment still grew 0.5% quarter‑on‑quarter. Private-sector wages slightly…

USD/JPY: Japan Bought Time, Not Yet a Stronger Yen

The dollar fell as much as 3% against the Japanese yen on Thursday in its biggest single-day drop since late 2022, as currency analysts across three continents pointed to one explanation: Japan's Ministry of Finance had…

Indian Rupee: RBI stance and inflows support Rupee – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports USD/INR is firmer after recently testing a one‑month low, following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) unanimous decision to keep its policy rate at 5.25% and maintain…

Nothing Britain does moves the Pound against the Dollar

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades near 1.3450 against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, higher by 0.11% inside a session range of 36 pips, the second sub-40-pip day cable has produced inside a week. The pair holds above the…

USD/JPY Faces Its First Test After Intervention

Speculation of intervention had been building for weeks as USD/JPY climbed back towards its 2024 highs. What caught markets off guard was the coordinated action with the US Treasury, giving last week’s intervention cons…

US Dollar Index: Downside bias within defined range – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes that the USD Index bias has shifted to the downside after failing to break above the weekly Ichimoku cloud and instead plunging below the 55-week EMA. However, flat EMAs…

Indian Rupee: RBI pause and Special swap inflows – DBS

DBS economist Radhika Rao expects the RBI MPC to keep the benchmark rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance and cautious guidance. The report highlights focus on core inflation, monitoring of West Asia risks and US Fed poli…

US Dollar: NFP and inflation mix complicate Fed path – BNY

BNY strategists John Velis and David Tam highlight the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases as key inputs for the Fed. They see consensus around 80,000 jobs, with a breakev…

Japanese Yen: Managed JPY signals new order – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton highlights coordinated action between the US Treasury and Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) to defend the Japanese Yen (JPY), framing it as a potential “financial Fort…